November 18, 2018

Escalation

 

 

2014 - Escalation Data

Date Event Nature of the Event Gravity Cause of the Escalation Source
30 December 2014 Pakistan Rangers kill one BSF soldier on the IB in Samba; BSF retaliates and kills 4 Pak Rangers. CFV Moderate CFV http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/indian-soldier-killed-in-pakistan-ceasefire-violation-bsf-kills-4-in-retaliatory-fire-720765
13 December 2014 Pakistan strongly reacted on Saturday to Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar's ‘provocative’ statement saying the country was fully capable to defend itself and thwart any aggression. Adverse Political Statement/ Official Statement Moderate Political rhetoric http://www.dawn.com/news/1150648
12 December 2014 India warns Pakistan of a "strong response" for its policy of aiding and abetting cross-border terrorism, a week after four synchronized militant strikes killed 11 security personnel and two civilians in Jammu & Kashmir. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar Adverse Political Statement/ Official Statement Moderate Terrorism http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Strong-action-against-Pakistan-in-6-months-Parrikar/articleshow/45500932.cms
27 November 2014 PM Modi and PM Sharif meet briefly at SAARC Summit in Kathmandu, Nepal. Politico-diplomatic engagement Positive No Escalation http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Modi-Sharif-handshake-salvages-Saarc-summit/articleshow/45296970.cms
2 November 2014 Pakistan Taliban issues direct threat to Indian PM Modi (Twitter) - vows revenge against PM Modi Terrorism Moderate Terrorism http://www.firstpost.com/world/after-wagah-pakistan-taliban-issues-direct-threat-to-indian-pm-modi-1788403.html and http://www.firstpost.com/world/after-wagah-pakistan-taliban-issues-direct-threat-to-indian-pm-modi-1788403.html
2 November 2014 Suicide bombing at Wagah border kills atleast 55 and injures over 200 persons. Terrorism Moderate Terrorism http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-27583677 and http://indianexpress.com/article/world/world-others/at-least-55-killed-200-injured-in-bomb-blast-at-wagah-border-in-pakistan/
11 October 2014 In a letter to United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Saturday, Sartaj Aziz, the Pakistani Prime Minister’s advisor on national security, accuses India of “deliberate and unprovoked” firing that killed 12 people in Pakistan. Aziz also see Adverse Political Statement Minor CFV http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2014/10/13/india-pakistan-border-firing-tapers-off-but-diplomatic-tempers-continue-to-flare/
10 October 2014 Indian MEA spokesperson Syed Akbaruddin says "It is for Pakistan to end its adventurism ... de-escalation is entirely in Pakistan's hands". He warns Pakistan with "appropriate response" from India for whatever it chose to do. Adverse Political Statement Moderate CFV http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Border-tension-Onus-on-Pakistan-to-de-escalate-India-says/articleshow/44779226.cms
8 October 2014 BSF sources tell NDTV that there are no plans as yet of holding any flag meeting with Pakistan. "There are no plans of a flag-meet as yet. It's too early to talk of de-escalation". Politico-military disengagement Minor CFV http://www.firstpost.com/india/loc-tension-live-even-as-firing-continues-nobel-peace-goes-to-indian-and-pakistani-1746971.html
8 October 2014 Union Minister of State for Home Kiren Rijiju met with NSA Ajit Doval and the Director General of BSF DK Pathak to discuss the prevailing situation along the LoC and the International Border with Pakistan. High level Meeting Moderate CFV http://www.firstpost.com/india/loc-tension-live-even-as-firing-continues-nobel-peace-goes-to-indian-and-pakistani-1746971.html
8 October 2014 At a meeting of the National Security Committee, to discuss the ceasefire violations along the Line of Control, Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif says "Pakistan's desire for peace should not be considered (by India) as its weakness." High Level Meeting / Adverse Political Statement Moderate CFV http://www.firstpost.com/india/loc-tension-live-even-as-firing-continues-nobel-peace-goes-to-indian-and-pakistani-1746971.html
8 October 2014 Pakistan hints at nuclear weapons: Pakistan Defence Minister Khawaja Asif says: "Pakistan has the ability to reply to Indian aggression. We do not want the situation on the borders of two nuclear neighbours to escalate into confrontation". the Federal Min Adverse Political Statement/ Nuclear Signalling Moderate CFV http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/pakistan-issues-nuclear-warning-to-india/1/395009.html
8 October 2014 India warns Pakistan as tension escalates on the LOC. Taking a tough line of ceasefire violations, India's Defence Minister says at a press conference: “Pakistan in this case has clearly been the aggressor. But it must realise that our deterrence will b Adverse Political Statement/ Nuclear Signalling Moderate CFV http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/jaitley-warns-pakistan-modi-praises-troops-as-ceasefire-violations-continues/ and http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/indias-stern-warning-to-pak-over-border-firing-our-forces-will-make-cost-of-your-adventurism-at-loc-unaffordable/ and http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/Modi-Jaitley-warn-Pakistan/article11063615.ece
8 October 2014 District Officials from Jammu, Samba and Kathua indicate that nearly 30,000 people have been displaced from 113 border villages along the 192-km long International Border following one of the worst violations of the 2003 ceasefire by Pakistan which left Domestic Turmoil Moderate CFV http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/residents-of-113-border-hamlets-flee-fearing-pakistan-firing/
8 October 2014 NDTV reports that India warned Pakistan that it is not afraid of escalation after relentless firing and shelling from across the border this week, in which eight civilians have been killed and around 50 injured. Top government sources say that Indian for Adverse Political Statement/ Diplomatic Disengagement Moderate CFV http://www.ndtv.com/cheat-sheet/india-warns-pakistan-its-not-afraid-of-escalating-fire-sources-676560
7 October 2014 India hits back at Pakistan; targets 37 Pakistani border posts, resulting in around 15 deaths, more than 30 injured and serious damage to outposts manned by the Pakistani Rangers, acc to intelligence sources. Military escalation Moderate CFV http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/india-hits-back-with-vengeance-strikes-37-pak-posts-15-killed/story-S4PLQ239GbtwupXfia1hSJ.html
7 October 2014 The BJP leader, Amit Shah says that Pakistan is begging for a flag meeting, but India has said that no flag meeting unless firing stops. Bilawal Bhutto tweets: Another attack on LOC. seems India adopting Israle model vs Pakistan.Modi must realize we c Adverse Political Statement Minor CFV http://www.firstpost.com/india/loc-tension-live-even-as-firing-continues-nobel-peace-goes-to-indian-and-pakistani-1746971.html
7 October 2014 The J&K chief minister called UNMOGIP a 'toothless organisation', and said that it has never been able to stop any violence. "If Pakistan wants a suitable situation then it can only happen if the guns go silent". Adverse Political Statement Minor CFV http://www.firstpost.com/india/loc-tension-live-even-as-firing-continues-nobel-peace-goes-to-indian-and-pakistani-1746971.html
7 October 2014 Pakistan envoy in UN has called upon the Indian government to observe the ceasefire along the Line of Control. Summoning of Envoy Moderate CFV http://www.firstpost.com/india/loc-tension-live-even-as-firing-continues-nobel-peace-goes-to-indian-and-pakistani-1746971.html
7 October 2014 The MHA reportedly calls for a high level meet as violence along the LoC showed every sign of escalating. The home secretary, IB chief, BSF representatives and Border Management representatives reportedly due to attend. High Level Meeting Moderate CFV http://www.firstpost.com/india/loc-tension-live-even-as-firing-continues-nobel-peace-goes-to-indian-and-pakistani-1746971.html
7 October 2014 An NDTV reports an Indian Government official informing that the Indian forces have been asked to retaliate heavily to firing from Pakistan and reject talks until all firing stops at the border in Jammu and Kashmir. Military escalation Moderate CFV http://www.firstpost.com/india/loc-tension-live-even-as-firing-continues-nobel-peace-goes-to-indian-and-pakistani-1746971.html
26 September 2014 External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj says Pakistan "spoilt the talks" by talking to Hurriyat leaders just ahead of Foreign Secretaries of the two nations were scheduled to meet in Islamabad last month. Adverse Political Statement Moderate Political rhetoric http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/pakistan-spoilt-talks-by-meeting-hurriyat-leaders-sushma-swaraj-671100
25 August 2014 Reuters reports that Indian and Pakistani troops intensified firing across the border CFV Moderate CFV http://in.reuters.com/article/india-pakistan-border-firing-idINKBN0GO0K220140824
25 August 2014 Indian newspaper DNA reports that 'Tension has escalated on the International Border with no let up in the ceasefire violations from Pakistani Rangers. The escalation has prompted the Jammu and Kashmir government to evacuate 8,000 residents from at least CFV Moderate CFV http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-tension-escalates-on-india-pakistan-border-8000-people-shift-to-safer-locations-2013318
23 August 2014 Pakistani Troops Target 25 BSF Posts in J&K (Arnia, RS Pura, Akhnoor). Indian Army Retaliates. Defence Minister Arun Jaitley says that the Indian Army would respond to the ceasefire violations, "Our army is prepared to respond to each violation. The coun CFV/ Adverse Political Statement Moderate CFV http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/pakistani-troops-target-25-bsf-posts-in-j-k-indian-army-retaliates-652735
18 August 2014 India today called off foreign secretary level talks with Pakistan with just a week to go, sending out a "clear and unambiguous message" that its envoy's engagement with Kashmiri separatist leaders was unacceptable. Diplomatic Disengagement Moderate Kashmir/ Political Rhetoric/ Other http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-calls-off-talks-with-pakistan-over-its-envoy-meeting-kashmiri-separatists-650033 and http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-calls-off-foreign-secretarylevel-talks-with-pakistan/article6329082.ece
18 August 2014 The Pakistani envoy invites leaders of all factions of the All Party Hurriyat Conference for consultations ahead of a crucial meeting of the Foreign Secretaries of the two nations in Islamabad on August 25. The provocation comes amid a spurt in violation Adverse Political Statement/ Official Statement Moderate Kashmir http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/pak-envoy-abdul-basit-calls-hurriyat-for-talks-nawaz-sharif-modi/1/377533.html
6 August 2014 India summons the Pakistani Deputy High Commissioner and seeks the immediate release of a BSF trooper captured by Pakistani forces after being swept across the border in Jammu and Kashmir by the Chenab river. Summoning of Envoy Minor No Escalation http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/indianews/article-2719322/India-calls-immediate-release-BSF-trooper-captured-Pakistani-forces-J-K-border.html#ixzz4V3xIuAvs
27 May 2014 Prime Minister Modi holds one-on-one bilateral talks with Pak PM Sharif on the first day after being sworn-in as the new Indian Prime Minister. Modi press Sharif for action against terrorists and militants Politico-diplomatic engagement Positive No Escalation http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-27583677
26 May 2014 BJP leader Narendra Modi sworn in as the new Indian Prime Minister. Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is invited with other SAARC leaders for the ceremony. Politico-diplomatic engagement Positive No Escalation http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/indias-new-pm-narendra-modi-to-meet-with-pakistani-premier-nawaz-sharif-after-being-sworn-in-9436226.html

 

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